The semi-final requirements

Given the pedigree that both Bangalore and Delhi have on paper, it is slightly surprising that they have huffed and puffed their way to a somewhat safe position on the points table and have both got one foot in the door for the semi-finals. They haven't yet gotten through for sure (though Bangalore are through for all practical purposes), and they only have themselves to blame for that, since they will feel that if they had been a bit tighter in some games, they would have been sitting on more than 14 points and would have already booked their place in the semi-final.

It is good for the tournament that both Delhi and Bangalore have won though, since they have players that can make watching them very exciting.

What Delhi's victory means though, is that the points table is still technically open. There are six matches to go, with Mumbai on 18 points and Bangalore and Delhi on 14 points. Chennai, Rajasthan and Deccan are locked on 12 points, while Kolkata have 10 and Punjab have 8.

A look at how each team stands from the bottom upwards:

Kings XI Punjab: They are on 8 points, with 2 games in hand. This means that the maximum number of points they can get is 12. Given that Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore are already on more than 12 points, the only way for Punjab to make it to the final four is if no other team crosses 12 points, and Punjab win by such huge margins that they end up having the best net run-rate. Punjab's current net run-rate is a low -0.48, and even if all other teams get to 12 points, they would have to beat Chennai on net run-rate. Chennai have a high NRR of +0.27, and their only remaining match is against Punjab. The difference in net run-rates is such that Punjab will have to win both their remaining matches by at least 100-run margins (or equivalent if bowling first), and in all likelihood beat Chennai by a 130 runs-plus margin. Since this is highly unlikely, Punjab can be safely discounted as a potential semi-finalist.

Kolkata Knight Riders: Kolkata have the worst net run-rate amongst all the teams (-0.63) - even worse than Punjab, and thus qualifying on net run-rates is also out of the question for them. They have 10 points with 2 games in hand, which means they have to win both games, and hope nobody else reaches 14 points. This is possible if Punjab win both their remaining matches (against Deccan and Chennai) and Delhi win their remaining game against Deccan. That would ensure that Kolkata make it to the semi-finals as the fourth team since neither Chennai, Rajasthan, Deccan or Punjab would have 14 points. But of course, if Kolkata lose another match, then they are also out of the semi-finals for all practical purposes.

Deccan Chargers: They are on 12 points with two games in hand. Their net run-rate is also none too good (-0.44). However, that will be made irrelevant if they win both remaining games, since this would take them to 16 points and give them entry to the semi-finals on points alone, since no combination of wins/losses will result in more than four teams ending up on 16 points. If Deccan win only one match, they would be on 14 points. The match Deccan have to win is against the Delhi Daredevils since Delhi are above them on net run-rate, and if Deccan can inflict a heavy defeat on Delhi then they might even be able to afford to lose their match against Punjab, provided they do so narrowly. One win and one loss for Deccan will mean a whole lot of net run-rate calculations will have to be made. If Deccan lose to Punjab heavily though, then their hopes of qualifying for the semi-finals will take a severe beating and even a subsequent win against Delhi might not be enough to see them through. Thus Deccan's simplest route is to win both their matches.

Rajasthan Royals: They have 12 points and only a game in hand. Their net run rate is -0.421, and if they lose their last match, then they will be out of the semi-finals for all practical purposes. Thus they need to win their match against Kolkata, and hope that Chennai lose against Punjab, since if Chennai win they will draw level on points and will qualify on account of their superior net run-rate. Even if they win, they are not guaranteed a final-four spot, since Deccan are close to them on net run-rates and have 2 matches in hand. They will need Deccan to lose at least one of the two, and win the other one very narrowly. Thus for Rajasthan to qualify, they need to beat Kolkata - preferably by a big margin - and hope that Chennai lose one match, while Deccan don't win more than one, and not very heavily at that.

Chennai Super Kings: They have 12 points with one game in hand, but their advantage is their very healthy net run rate, which is +0.27. If Chennai lose their final match (which is against Punjab) then they must hope that Kolkata beat Rajasthan, while Deccan lose to Delhi and Punjab and Mumbai beat Kolkata. This would mean Rajasthan, Kolkata, Deccan and Chennai would be tied on 12 points, and Chennai would make it through on account of their strong NRR. If Chennai win, they will be on 14 points, and are likely to make it through to the semi-finals, since they are likely to be amongst three teams fighting for two slots, and their NRR will take them through.

Delhi Daredevils: They have 14 points, with a match in hand. If they win their match against the Deccan Chargers, their entry into the semi-finals will be assured, but if they lose the match, then they must hope that Chennai also lose their match or that Deccan don't win two out of two matches. Any one of the above two will result in Delhi qualifying for the semi-finals even if they lose their last match. However, if Delhi lose and Chennai and Deccan both win their remaining matches, then Delhi will be edged out.

Royal Challengers Bangalore: They have 14 points, with a match in hand. If Bangalore win their final match (against the Mumbai Indians), then they will be through to the semi-finals, but they are still likely to make it even if they lose to Mumbai. The only way they will be edged out if they lose is if Deccan beat Delhi narrowly and Punjab very comprehensively, while Chennai also beat very comprehensively. Meanwhile, Bangalore themselves will have to lose by a mammoth margin to Mumbai (on the order of 110 runs or so) for their Net Run Rate to fall below Delhi's and so be edged out of the semi-finals. Thus for all practical purposes, Bangalore are also through to the semi-finals.

Mumbai Indians: The only thing for them to do is ensure Sachin Tendulkar continues to strike the ball the way he has all tournament long! They are not only in the semi-final, but are guaranteed to qualify as the top-ranked team from the league stage.